The 2022-2023 season

In a research-amount approach, the PISSARO project integrated two years ago the working group for monthly forecast experimentation in the southwest Indian Ocean, which has been meeting at DIROI once a month during the austral summer since 2018. This working group brings together S2S forecast experts from DIROI, CNRM, ENM and now LACy. The main objectives of these briefings are the forecasting of cyclonic activity and weather patterns in the southwest Indian Ocean and constructive discussions on improving the associated methodology. Thanks to last season’s work, the analysis for the 2022-2023 season is enriched with new forecast products (new parameters for Hovmöller diagrams with wave filtering up to week 6, SST forecast maps to predict SIOD sign changes…). Thanks to the strong collaboration between LACy and the EC team of DIROI, several user-oriented forecasting products have been developed, will be tested this season and evaluated in these briefings. More details on these products here! These “automatic” products allow the scope of the briefing to expand. The ITCZ migration forecasting product in the north of the southwest Indian Ocean should allow the anticipation of the start of the rainy season over the Seychelles. Our Seychelles partners from the SMA will accompany us this season and will add their expertise to the discussions on intra-seasonal drivers in the near equatorial part of the region.

The monthly annotated briefings are available by clicking below (restricted access to participants):

• Briefing n°1 (October 2022)
• Briefing n°2 (November 2022)
• Briefing n°3 (December 2022)
• Briefing n°4 (January 2023)
• Briefing n°5 (February 2023)
• Briefing n°6 (March 2023)
• Briefing n°7 (April 2023)

The retex will take place on 29 June with all the participants in this season’s briefings in order to assess the achievements of the season, evaluate the monthly forecasts, discuss the external forcings favouring the initiation of precursors for cyclogenesis as well as the drivers of the S2S scale at the level of the tropics and evaluate the contribution of the new products used for the analysis. An assessment will also be made of the quality of the products developed within the framework of the PISSARO project and they were numerous this year.